The French magazine France Football declares year after year that the Ballon d'Or is awarded based on three official criteria: individual performance, team achievements, and class and fair play. The voting of a hundred international journalists should cover the entire past season - not just a single tournament or the emotions of one bright month.
If the jury were to strictly adhere to the regulations, the results for 2026 would be obvious. However, the reality is that in the fight for the award, a compelling story often outweighs dry sporting statistics.
Three criteria and Harry Kane's historic season
Harry Kane had the best statistical season of his career. The Englishman scored 61 goals in 51 matches for Bayern Munich, won the Golden Boot with 36 goals in the Bundesliga, completed a domestic double (league and cup), and netted 14 goals in the Champions League, reaching the semi-finals. At the World Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico, he added 6 goals for the England national team, once again falling just short of the final.
- Individual performance: Harry Kane scored 73 goals for club and country this season, achieving the second-best scoring record in the 21st century after Lionel Messi's records.
- Team achievements: Two trophies with Bayern Munich and two semi-finals in major global tournaments (Champions League and World Cup).
- Class and fair play: Professionalism, leadership status as captain of the England team, and an unprecedented reputation.
Based on these three metrics, Harry Kane is the ideal and most complete candidate for the award.
The power of narrative with Lamine Yamal
The paradox is that the public debate revolves not around Harry Kane's comprehensive results but rather around the reasons to award the Ballon d'Or to Lamine Yamal, making him the youngest winner in history.
The Spanish winger had an outstanding season: 16 goals and 11 assists in La Liga for Barcelona, winning the league and Supercopa de España, being named the best player in La Liga, and finally lifting the World Cup trophy at the age of 19.
However, sporting analysis shows that Lamine Yamal was not a key contributor to Spain's triumph at the World Cup. The tournament’s Ballon d'Or winner was Rodri, who controlled the midfield, the best young player was Pau Cubas, and the Spanish defence conceded just one goal in eight matches. Lamine Yamal was brilliant in dribbling (35 successful dribbles), but he scored only one goal in the tournament.
The statistic of 16 goals in the league is phenomenal for a 19-year-old, but the Ballon d'Or is not awarded based on achievements relative to age - that’s what the Kopa Trophy is for.
How the World Cup overshadowed the club season
Prior to the World Cup, the hierarchy appeared logical:
- Harry Kane (scoring records, double with Bayern Munich);
- Kvaratskhelia (Champions League victory with PSG and UEFA's best player status);
- Kylian Mbappé (top scorer in the Champions League with 15 goals);
- Lamine Yamal;
- Michael Olise (30 assists for Bayern Munich and 7 assists at the World Cup).
But the short month-long tournament completely overshadowed 10 months of club football in the minds of journalists.
If the jury truly prioritised winning the World Cup, the main candidate should have been Rodri (the captain who made 122 progressive passes in the tournament). If the Champions League mattered most - Kvaratskhelia would have been the choice. Yet, journalists tend to opt for the most headline-grabbing story.
Ideal ranking by criteria vs actual choice by journalists
The objective ranking according to the France Football regulations:
- Harry Kane (most balanced across all three criteria);
- Lamine Yamal (major trophies, but lower individual statistics);
- Rodri (best player of the World Cup amid a troubled club season);
- Kvaratskhelia (Champions League hero without international success);
- Kylian Mbappé (outstanding individual performance without trophies);
- Michael Olise (record for assists, but not the main leader);
- Lionel Messi (World Cup finalist and MLS champion).
Probable journalists' choice at the ceremony on 26 October:
- Lamine Yamal (the most marketable and emotional figure in world football);
- Harry Kane (extraordinary figures, but lacking a Champions League or World Cup victory);
- Rodri;
- Lionel Messi;
- Kylian Mbappé.
Harry Kane's season requires a lengthy list of figures and facts. Lamine Yamal's season can be summed up in one concise phrase:
A 19-year-old man became the champion of Spain and lifted the World Cup trophy overhead.
It is this succinctness and emotional power of the narrative that will likely determine the holder of the Ballon d'Or 2026.
