Manchester City sit atop the Premier League table with a perfect record of five wins from five matches. However, their defensive qualities have raised numerous concerns. Just how vulnerable can they afford to be without jeopardising their title ambitions?
I would prefer to win 1-0 than 5-3.
These words from City’s Italian manager Enzo Maresca, following a frenetic 5-3 victory over Sunderland, sparked quite the philosophical debate. Unlike the ideology espoused by Ange Postecoglou, which celebrates entertainment, Maresca has made it clear that he demands control and significantly less chaos on the pitch.
A win tinged with worry: the nightmare against Sunderland
The manager understands the nature of the game: while a 5-3 win might appear thrilling from a neutral standpoint, it serves as a worrying symptom. In the first half alone, City had to restore their lead three times, a feat only previously seen six times in Premier League history. The Manchester side allowed their opponents to create far too many threats to their goal.
Sunderland, while a solid and organised team, doesn’t usually generate a plethora of opportunities. Yet, on the hallowed ground of a title contender, the Black Cats recorded a staggering 3.57 expected goals (xG), a record high since their return to the top flight.
To appreciate the scale of this anomaly:
- In 43 matches since last season, Sunderland only surpassed the 2.0 xG mark twice (their previous record was 2.44 against Newcastle in March).
- In over half of their matches (22), they failed to even reach 1.0 xG.
Yet the cracks in City’s defence were glaring. Powerful forward Brian Brobbey netted a hat-trick, scoring from close range. When it was 4-3, only a desperate clearance off the line by defender Ruben Dias prevented City from conceding a fourth goal.
After the final whistle, Maresca didn't hide his disappointment:
It’s always better to win. Right now, three points are far more crucial than any discussions; there’s no doubt about that. We scored five goals and could have netted even more. We created enough, but at the same time, we must avoid conceding goals like today. We had four clean sheets before this game, and today we shipped three.
The illusion of a clean sheet run
Maresca’s reference to the four consecutive clean sheets seems a clear attempt to mask underlying issues. That streak included a cup victory over Championship side Norwich City and a narrow 1-0 home win against promoted Coventry City, where the opposition created enough chances to have scored at least a couple themselves.
City’s backline only truly stood firm during the Manchester derby at Old Trafford (1-0), where they adeptly weathered the storm despite spending most of the time with ten men. However, during those four clean sheets, opponents mustered an xG of 2.82 against them. This suggests that City should have conceded around three goals.
Exceptional form from goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma has saved the team on numerous occasions, but relying solely on the heroics of the Italian shot-stopper is a recipe for disaster.
Sunderland's xG of 3.57 marks the third-highest total in Premier League history for a losing team since detailed statistics became available in the 2013/14 season. On another day, Sunderland would have claimed victory, much like Manchester United and Coventry lamented their misfortune. In the opening round, United produced a comeback win against Bournemouth with goals in the 84th and 91st minutes.
Despite an unblemished record of 15 points, the loss of Rodri in the midfield has disrupted City’s previous balance.
Attack in focus: is there enough firepower up front?
City's outstanding attacking line remains their lifeline. The sensational Erling Haaland has already scored five goals this campaign, leading the race for the golden boot.
Supporting the attack are:
- Ryan Cherki (three goals and two assists);
- Antoine Semenyo (two goals and three assists);
- Enzo Fernandez, posing threats from midfield;
- Iliman Ndiaye, who has seamlessly integrated into the setup after his move from Everton;
- Phil Foden, consistently creating chances;
- The returning Jeremy Doku, along with the attacking defenders Nico O'Reilly and Josko Gvardiol.
Only sensational Brighton have netted more goals in the league (16) than Manchester City (13). However, six clubs have conceded fewer goals than City’s five, including Leeds United, Everton, Brentford, Hull City, and crucial title rivals Arsenal and Liverpool.
Sky Sports expert Paul Merson is unequivocal in his predictions:
Manchester City have no chance of winning the title. They are good going forward, but at the back, there is total chaos. Sooner or later, this will come back to bite them.
Statistics of champions: who takes home the trophies?
The famous adage by Sir Alex Ferguson states: “Attack wins matches, defence wins titles.” Yet, historical trends in the Premier League suggest different nuances to this doctrine.
In 31 completed seasons of the Premier League with 20 clubs:
- The team with the best attack has been crowned champion 21 times.
- The team boasting the best defence has taken the gold 15 times.
- In 12 instances, the title went to the top attack without the best defence.
- Only six times has the champion been the team with the best defence yet a subpar attack.
If Maresca’s charges maintain their remarkable scoring rate of 2.6 goals per game, they will keep their championship hopes alive. However, the historical context is alarming: Manchester City has become the 15th team in Premier League history to start the season with five straight wins. Of the previous 14, only four went on to lift the trophy. In the last decade, only two teams with a perfect start have claimed the title. Last season, Liverpool also won their first five league games but ultimately scrapped to a fifth-place finish.
In the xPoints analytical table, City trails Arsenal for the top spot. Over a long season, play quality metrics inevitably outweigh fleeting luck. If Maresca doesn’t stabilise the backline, the Gunners will swiftly erase the gap. But for the time being, with such a destructive attack, supporters can expect an incredibly thrilling season.
