With five rounds of the 2026/27 Premier League season now behind us, early analytical data has begun to emerge. However, the distance is still too short to fully dismiss the impact of sheer luck and statistical anomalies on final results. Which clubs are undeservedly reaping the rewards, and who has fallen victim to relentless misfortune?
Reality vs expectations: is the table lying at the start?
Leading the pack with five wins from five, Manchester City are the only club boasting a perfect record. Following close behind, Arsenal trail by just three points, living up to their pre-season predictions as title contenders from Opta. Brighton and Brentford have surprisingly strong starts, occupying the remaining spots in the Champions League places.
At the other end of the table, Tottenham Hotspur find themselves rooted to the bottom with a mere two points, joined in the relegation zone by Fulham and Coventry City.
But does the league table truly reflect the on-pitch dynamics?
On one hand, it certainly does. Points accumulated remain the key measure of success in professional sport. Yet, when it comes to the quality of football displayed, the overall picture is heavily skewed: some teams have rightfully earned more points while others have unduly cashed in on luck.
This is where the mathematical model of expected points (xPoints) from Opta comes into play. The algorithm bases its calculations on expected goals (xG) generated for each shot and simulates the score of each match 10,000 times, determining the likelihood of wins, draws, or losses. This forms an alternative league table. While xG models can't account for every nuance — such as game scenarios or lengthy spells of possession without shots — real points are always more meaningful than theoretical calculations. Nevertheless, this metric provides invaluable context to the unfolding drama.
Title race: Arsenal's leadership and Manchester City's overperformance
The key intrigue lies in the fact that the top of the expected points table is occupied solely by Arsenal. The Gunners remain the primary contenders for the title according to Opta's supercomputer, and their advanced metrics are impressive: Mikel Arteta's side possesses the best xG difference in the league at +4.44.
Meanwhile, Manchester City sit in second in the xPoints model. The Citizens have enjoyed a stellar start under new manager Enzo Maresca, but the data suggests a significant dose of good fortune: they have accumulated 5.8 points more than the quality of chances created and conceded would indicate.
In the fifth round, Sunderland generated an astonishing 3.57 xG against City — the third-highest figure in Premier League history for a losing side since the 2013/14 season. In the derby against Manchester United, which ended in a slim 1-0 win, the chances created were nearly identical.
However, it's crucial to consider the context of these matches: City have led for 52.5% of their time on the pitch this season — more than any other team in the league. This meant they rarely had to ramp up the intensity and go all out, which naturally reduced the overall threat they posed.
Major disappointments: underperformers Michael Carrick and Spurs
Who deserves to be significantly higher in the standings?
Michael Carrick has faced a barrage of criticism due to Manchester United's dismal start. The Red Devils scraped together just five points in five matches, matching their worst start in Premier League history from the 2014/15 season.
However, the basic stats for the Manchester side look compelling:
- Manchester United lead the league in total shots taken (113).
- They top the chart for touches in the opposition penalty area (182).
- Their total of 9.89 xG ranks fourth in the league.
The expected points model places Carrick's men fourth with 8.4 xPoints, but they currently languish in 12th place. An eight-position discrepancy is the most glaring anomaly in the tournament. The root of their struggles lies in catastrophic finishing: United converted just 7.1% of their shots into goals (the fifth-lowest rate in the league).
Following closely is Tottenham, who head into the international break as absolute bottom-dwellers. For the first time since the 2008/09 campaign, Spurs are propping up the table after five rounds.
Yet advanced statistics favour Roberto De Zerbi's side: on expected points, they sit in 12th, a full eight places higher than their actual position. While the thrashing by Brentford (0-3) and a dismal goalless draw with Everton were justified, in their home defeats to Newcastle (0-2) and Aston Villa (2-3), Spurs were deservedly better off. In those two matches, Tottenham amassed 2.68 xG compared to their opponents' 1.85 xG, suffering for their inability to convert early chances.
Both Bournemouth and Sunderland find themselves six places lower than expected.
- Bournemouth are struggling to hold onto leads: the Cherries led in four out of five matches yet squandered nine points from winning positions. Their draw with Brentford (2-2) was particularly painful, with Kevin Schade scoring two incredible goals.
- Sunderland, conversely, are experiencing the opposite end of the spectrum: having scored just six goals with 9.77 xG (-3.77 underperformance — the second-worst record after Coventry), the club sits in 14th rather than the deserved eighth place. They have exceeded Brentford in chances created (1-1), missed a penalty while tied with Arsenal (0-2), and delivered a strong attacking display despite the 3-5 loss to Manchester City.
Fortune's favourites: paradoxes of Newcastle and Hull City
Newcastle United fans may prefer to overlook advanced analytics. The Opta model places the Magpies at the bottom, 20th place. Yet, in reality, they sit comfortably in ninth. An 11-position gap represents the largest chasm between illusion and reality this season.
The difference between their actual and expected points sits at 3.99 (even less than Manchester City's anomaly of 5.82). This wild variation in placement is driven by a remarkably close lower half of the table, where the value of a win can propel one up by ten spots.
Nonetheless, Newcastle's figures are troubling:
- They have the second-worst expected goal difference in the entire Premier League (-3.76), ahead of only the stricken Aston Villa (-4.35).
- The Magpies have lost the xG metric in all five matches played, managing to secure two wins and two draws with just one defeat.
As with the leaders, match scenarios have played a role: the team has led for 45.5% of their playing time (the second-highest in the division), opting to sit back in deep defence.
Hull City displays similar patterns. With the same statistics (two wins, two draws, and one defeat), they sit in eighth. In the xPoints table, the Tigers rank a modest 16th with 5.18 expected points.
Yet even such a result for a team that was predicted to face instant relegation, given the sixth most challenging fixture list at the start, feels commendable: they have already taken points off big clubs, defeating Manchester United (2-0) and managing a battling draw against Chelsea (2-2).
While the expected points table won't replace the real Premier League standings, it offers a clear-eyed perspective to understand whose success is backed by true performance and whose house of cards may crumble at the first gust of wind.
