Chelsea's matches this season have turned into a nerve-racking experience for fans. Xabi Alonso's team scores plenty, consistently creates dangerous chances and can seize initiative quickly. However, the Londoner's defence gives opponents too many opportunities.
After six rounds, Chelsea have netted 15 goals while conceding 13. That's an average of 4.7 goals per game. For neutral viewers, such football is a real treat, but can it secure a European spot for the club?
Attack is firing unexpectedly
Chelsea's scoring rate is impressive, especially when compared to the quality of chances they create. The team has scored 15 goals with an expected goals (xG) tally of just 8.4, indicating an overperformance of 6.6 goals.
Their conversion rate stands at 18.3%, making it the second-best in the league after Manchester City at 19.1%. Interestingly, eight of their 15 goals came from shots with a probability of scoring below 13%. In a remarkable 5-1 victory over Bournemouth, Chelsea scored five times, but their total xG for that match was only 0.75.
This suggests a high quality of finishing but also warns of a potential decline. Such conversion rates are rarely sustainable throughout a season, so it's crucial for Chelsea to learn how to achieve results beyond simply relying on accurate shooting.
Palmer, Joao Pedro, and Rodgers are a nightmare for defenders
One of the main strengths of Alonso's team is the complementary skills of their attacking players.
Cole Palmer finds space between the lines, helping to develop attacks whilst providing direction. Morgan Rodgers utilises his speed and dribbling to disrupt the opposition's defensive structure. Meanwhile, Joao Pedro makes intelligent runs behind defenders and can finish calmly in created situations.
This trio frequently swaps positions, making it difficult for opponents to know who to mark first. If the defence focuses on one player, space opens up for the other.
However, individual brilliance in attack cannot constantly compensate for defensive shortcomings. If Chelsea are to challenge for higher positions, they must learn to control games and protect their lead.
Defence remains the Achilles' heel
With 13 goals conceded, Chelsea has one of the league's worst defensive records. Furthermore, they have not kept a clean sheet in the Premier League for 22 consecutive matches.
Alonso's system requires active participation from many players in attack. When in possession, both full-backs push forward, along with two attacking midfielders and Joao Pedro, leaving only three defenders and two central midfielders to cover substantial spaces behind.
The problem worsens when one of the central midfielders joins the attack. Losing the ball allows opponents to quickly exploit the spaces left behind, attacking the areas vacated by the full-backs and putting central defenders under considerable pressure.
This style can yield entertaining victories, but it demands almost perfect interaction across the lines. Currently, Chelsea is not consistently managing to maintain that necessary balance.
Defeat to Brentford serves as a wake-up call
The 0-3 defeat to Brentford before the international break starkly highlighted Chelsea's weaknesses.
Andrews' team consistently exploited the space behind Chelsea's high full-backs, forcing the home midfielders to choose between tracking opponents down the flanks or maintaining compactness in the centre.
All three goals conceded underscored the defensive fragility. The first came from pressure on the flanks which allowed Brentford a corner. In the second, Kevin Schade broke behind the defenders and Thiago scored from a rebound. The third goal resulted from space on the flank, where Schade had time to deliver a cross that ended with a shot at the far post.
As Chelsea pressed for a comeback, their defensive structure stretched even thinner. While they continued pushing players forward, increasing their attacking threat, they simultaneously provided opponents with greater opportunities for counters.
Victory over Bournemouth shows a potential way forward
The 5-1 rout of Bournemouth initially seemed to follow the familiar script: rapid attacks, high attacking efficiency, and yet another match without a clean sheet. However, tactical adjustments following the international break could prove pivotal in better balancing the team.
One of Alonso's key decisions was to adopt a 4-4-2 defensive formation instead of the standard three central defenders.
Josh Achiampong operated closer to a traditional right-back role, Levi Colwill and Maxens Lacroix positioned themselves more compactly, while Pep Chavarria was conservative in his plays on the left, and Neto enjoyed more freedom on the opposite flank.
This allowed Chelsea to better control the spaces between the lines and present a more recognisable structure when out of possession. While problems weren't entirely eliminated, the defensive organisation appeared more promising.
Moisés Caicedo's return bolsters the midfield
Another crucial factor has been the return of Moisés Caicedo, who has added energy, strength in duels, and the capability to shield space in front of the defence.
In the match against Bournemouth, Caicedo won seven duels, made four interceptions—one of the best performances of the match—and completed 11 defensive actions, trailing only one other player.
Jordan Henderson has also played a key role in orchestrating the midfield's actions, leading the pressing and instilling discipline within the team.
Nevertheless, even with a more compact structure, Chelsea still faced challenges. Bournemouth entered the final third 67 times, while Chelsea managed 39. Opponents continued finding space and taking advantage of individual errors.
Alonso's next step should focus on developing a shared understanding among the players, ensuring they respond synchronously to game situations, select the right moments for pressing, and that partners cover any vacated areas.
Entertainment isn't enough for a challenge for Europe
Chelsea can genuinely be considered one of the most entertaining teams in the Premier League. Their attacking trio creates a constant threat, and the high tempo of matches ensures plenty of scoring opportunities.
However, simply scoring goals isn't enough for a successful season. Should their finishing efficiency decline, the team will need to rely more frequently on defensive stability—which, at present, is where the major challenges lie.
The win against Bournemouth provided encouraging signs: a more compact defensive structure and Caicedo's return may help the Londoners maintain their attacking prowess while reducing the number of dangerous situations at their own end.
Xabi Alonso's primary task is to transform these improvements into a consistent trend. If Chelsea can learn to better control space and protect their leads, their entertaining football may create a foundation for a European challenge rather than a source of ongoing problems.
