Mauricio Pochettino believes that Tottenham should have been awarded the Premier League title for the 2016/17 season after Chelsea admitted to transfer rule violations. Recent statistics lend considerable weight to the former Spurs manager's claims.
Chelsea finished that championship season with 93 points, finishing seven points clear of Tottenham. However, the club later confessed to undisclosed payments to unregistered agents and third parties totalling over £47 million during the previous ownership. Chelsea faced financial sanctions for these infractions, yet avoided any sporting penalties like point deductions or title revocations.
Pochettino, who was at the helm of Tottenham during the 2016/17 campaign, has previously asserted that given these circumstances, his team deserved to be crowned champions of England.
Tottenham accumulated 86 points that season, marking the highest haul in the club's Premier League history up to that point. The team also scored 86 goals and finished the campaign with an impressive 11-point gap over third-placed Manchester City.
The new analysis focuses particularly on players whose transfers were tied to the identified breaches, including Eden Hazard, Willian, Ramirez, David Luiz, Andre Schürrle, and Nemanja Matic.
What would change without the goals from disputed signings?
The authors of the analysis attempted to strip out the goals scored by Hazard, Willian, Matic, and David Luiz from Chelsea's tally.
The results show a stark shift: Tottenham remains at 86 points, while Manchester City drops to 82, and Chelsea falls to 79. However, this calculation cannot be considered an official alternative league table, as it is impossible to determine how matches would have unfolded with a vastly different squad.
For example, in the opening match, Hazard scored against West Ham. Without that goal, the game would have ended in a 1-1 draw instead of Chelsea's 2-1 victory.
In December, both Hazard and Willian scored in a triumph over Manchester City. Removing those goals also alters the game's outcome and Chelsea's point total.
Willian played a pivotal role in several matches that season, scoring and assisting in vital moments against teams like Hull, Manchester City, Sunderland, and Stoke City.
The story of Willian's transfer is particularly noteworthy. In 2013, he was on Tottenham's training ground, having passed a medical and was close to signing with the club, only to eventually end up at Chelsea.
Why was there no sporting punishment?
The principal question is not just how significantly the violations affected the team's results, but what punishment should have been applicable.
Chelsea self-reported issues found in documentation during Roman Abramovich's tenure to their new owners. The club subsequently provided a large volume of evidence to the authorities and cooperated with the investigation.
This cooperation was a significant factor in determining the penalty. Ultimately, the club faced a hefty fine but avoided point deductions or loss of titles.
Critics of this decision argue that financial punishment does not reflect the potential sporting advantage Chelsea gained from their rule-breaking.
Can Tottenham truly be regarded as champions?
Legally and officially — no. The title for the 2016/17 season still belongs to Chelsea, and the Premier League is not considering retrospectively awarding Tottenham the championship.
However, mathematical analysis provides insight into why Pochettino's statement has resonated so strongly.
Even if we consider only the goals scored by the four players linked to the transfers investigated, Tottenham still achieves the highest tally of 86 points. But this remains a hypothetical scenario, not proof that Tottenham would have automatically become champions.
Without those players, Chelsea could have deployed different footballers, matches may have played out differently, and a single goal's removal could have influenced tactics and results for both teams.
Thus, the historical title stays with Chelsea. However, in light of the club's admissions and the release of new statistical analysis, the question of the fairness of the punishment is back in the spotlight.
