Three weeks in football is an eternity, particularly for teams in freefall with fans calling for managerial changes. The Championship has already seen the likes of Paul Heckingbottom at Preston North End and Michael Duff at Wycombe Wanderers lose their jobs. As the Premier League heads into an extended international break, several top-flight managers find themselves glancing nervously over their shoulders.
At the epicentre of the pressure are the coaches of Fulham and Manchester United, who met at Craven Cottage in a crucial match just before the players head off to join their national teams.
Alvaro Arbeloa, who took over at Fulham in the summer after a brief stint with Real Madrid, is under immense scrutiny: he’s yet to secure a victory, suffering three defeats in four Premier League outings, and whispers of unrest within the dressing room have surfaced, particularly with players reportedly airing grievances on social media.
Things are equally tense at Old Trafford. Michael Carrick’s dismal exit from the League Cup at the hands of Brighton (2-3) has rewritten a half-century record: Manchester United led at home by two goals only to lose, the first time that happened since a match against Tottenham way back in 1976. Coupled with a defeat to ten-man Manchester City (0-1) and meagre victories against Ipswich Town and Azerbaijan's Sabah, Carrick’s seat is becoming increasingly shaky.
Anatomy of sackings: why statistics are against hasty decisions
Historically over the past decade, Premier League clubs have shown a reluctance to part ways with managers this early in the season. The international break in September has rarely triggered an axe falling: in the last ten years, only Javi Gracia at Watford in 2019 and Nuno Espirito Santo at Nottingham Forest last season succumbed to dismissal during this period.
October’s break traditionally offers a protective shield to managers as only two have faced the chop then (Francesco Guidolin at Swansea in 2016 and Cisco Munoz at Watford in 2021). The real bloodbath tends to occur in November, with six managers losing their jobs by the time the late autumn settles in.
Yet, during the last ten campaigns, a total of nine managers have been relieved of their duties by the time the second international break rolls around—exactly the fixture congestion the current clubs are navigating. Given that this break lasts not two weeks, but three, the temptation for clubs to reboot their projects could increase significantly.
A look from within: opportunity window or nightmare for the dressing room
Former Stoke City, West Bromwich and Middlesbrough manager Tony Pulis believes lengthy breaks in the season can unleash owners’ tendencies:
In my time as a manager, the breaks in October and November, and the periods immediately after the Christmas chaos and early March, were always critical points for any manager struggling with results. The logic from clubs is simple: a pause allows the appointment of a new manager, giving them time to settle in, assess the situation, meet the staff, and set down basic principles before their first game. After Christmas, there’s usually an FA Cup match, which gives a new boss a chance to study the squad without the pressure of league points on the line.
I don’t see this current September break as a critical warning flare—the season has only just started. But for managers, an early break can feel like a nightmare. If you’re winning, you want to keep playing. If you’re struggling, you need time on the training pitch with the squad, but instead, players are jet-setting across the globe, risking injuries on international duty.
Who are top of the sacking list? Key candidates under threat
Michael Carrick (Manchester United)
Carrick has labelled the talks about his sacking as absurd, and it seems many agree. Guiding the team to the Champions League last season secured him a decent amount of trust. However, another slip-up at Craven Cottage against a side with just one point to their name would place United firmly in the firing line before a tough October clash against Tottenham.
Alvaro Arbeloa (Fulham)
A radical tactical shift after five years of Marco Silva has left the Cottagers' defence exposed, despite a rare glimmer with a goalless draw against Liverpool. Club owner Shahid Khan is known for his hot temper: Claudio Ranieri lasted just 106 days with him, while Felix Magath was sacked right in September.
Roberto De Zerbi (Tottenham)
Spurs splashed around £300 million on new recruits, yet the returns have been virtually non-existent: not a single win in five league matches. While the club’s hierarchy isn’t currently applying pressure on the Italian, there’s a sense that patience may wear thin among supporters.
Pierre Sage (Crystal Palace)
The Frenchman is struggling to find his footing in London after moving from Lonce: just one Premier League win and a leaky defence have put his position under scrutiny. Injuries to key forwards Ismaila Sarr and Jean-Philippe Mateta provide him some leeway, while a thumping win over Polish side Lech (4-0) in the Europa League eased tensions slightly, but a slip-up against Leeds could be catastrophic.
Nikki Hyen (Burnley) and John Eustace (Derby County)
Hyen left Genk to bring the Clarets back to the Premier League, but he’s yet to win any of his first eight Championship matches. A last-gasp draw with Derby (1-1) left Burnley at the bottom of the table, placing Hyen’s position under serious threat. It’s equally gloomy for Eustace, whose club remains stranded in the relegation zone.
Alessio Dionisi (Watford)
At Vicarage Road, managers traditionally live on a tightrope. The former Empoli boss became the 27th permanent manager of the club in less than 18 years. A defeat to Bristol City left the Hornets sitting 19th with just two wins in eight outings. Knowing the impulsiveness of owner Gino Pozzo, another managerial sacking at Hertfordshire could happen at any moment.
