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An analysis of Chelsea's start under Xabi Alonso sees the team winning its opening matches while setting a record low possession rate (25%), relying on quick transitions. Upcoming games against Arsenal will test the Blues' real chances for the Premier League title.

The summer transfer window in the English Premier League closed with astronomical spending, with clubs collectively shelling out over £3.4 billion. Chelsea spent £340 million on 13 players, becoming the second-highest spending club. However, experts are focusing less on financial outlay and more on the team’s unexpected playing style under Xabi Alonso.

The Blues started the season with two thrilling and chaotic victories against Fulham (3-2) and Brighton (4-3). While they netted an impressive seven goals, significant questions arose concerning their game control. Remarkably, in the match against Brighton, Chelsea managed just 25% possession— the lowest for any top club in the league’s history. Their possession against Fulham didn’t exceed 38% either.

Xabi Alonso himself seems indifferent to possession statistics. After the win against Brighton, he dismissed the relevance of such numbers, insisting that he never discusses possession percentages. Nonetheless, analysts have flagged the substantial risk. Maintaining a rapid transition style from defence to attack over the course of a season is a tall order, especially for a team with title aspirations. In fact, since Opta began detailed statistics, only two teams have finished in the top four with an average possession of less than 50%—Everton in the 2004/2005 season and Leicester in 2015/2016.

There are several reasons for Alonso's pragmatic approach at the start:

Firstly, Chelsea unusually took the lead early in both matches, leading them to focus on consolidating their defensive advantage.

Secondly, midfield issues have come into play: the exit of Enzo Fernandez to Manchester City and the injury to Moises Caicedo have left them short on dominant playmakers. Romeo Lavia has been forced to operate in the holding role, with support from Richard James and even a deep-dropping Cole Palmer.

Thirdly, goalkeeper Emi Martinez has delivered direct long balls 97% of the time, effectively utilising the speed of their star trio in attack.

The true test of Chelsea’s ambitions and the viability of Xabi Alonso’s tactics awaits them on Sunday. The Blues are set to visit the reigning champions, Arsenal. This match will serve as a real barometer for the team’s title prospects.