The 2026/27 Premier League season is just kicking off after the international break, but advanced statistical metrics are already indicating clear trends in England's top flight. The expected goals (xG) data from FotMob illustrates noticeably who is exceeding their limitations with finishing and who is demonstrating solid play without the backing of league points.
Leading the charge early this season is Brighton, who have secured three consecutive victories. They sit atop the table, having scored more goals than anyone else, backed by a remarkable xG of 12.9. This combination of creating significant chances and clinical finishing has turned the Seagulls into a formidable attacking force.
A hidden positive for Michael Carrick and Arsenal's defensive wall
Under pressure, Manchester United manager Michael Carrick can find solace in the fact that his side ranks fifth in the league for xG with an impressive figure of 10.7. They are only behind Brighton, Manchester City, Brentford, and Arsenal. The Red Devils boast the sixth-best expected goal difference (+2.3) and have gathered nine expected points (xPTS), equal with Brentford, Everton, and Bournemouth. If advanced statistics are to be believed, United's results should improve as they stabilize their finishing and goalkeeper performance.
Meanwhile, reigning champions Arsenal are reinforcing their reputation as the strongest defence in the league, allowing only 4.7 xGA at their goal, which is 2.5 points more reliable than any other team in the league. With an xG difference of +6.1, the Gunners confidently lead the overall balance of power.
Manchester City sits second in terms of metric balance (+3.6), despite their defensive solidity being shaken during a wild shootout victory against Sunderland (5-3), where they conceded a staggering 4.61 xGA. Nottingham Forest has surprisingly come through as a strong defensive side, currently placing second in defensive metrics with 7.2 xGA.
Alarm bells ringing for the relegation threatened teams
The form of Crystal Palace and Newcastle has raised significant concerns:
- The Eagles have conceded chances amounting to 12.8 xGA, finding themselves rock bottom in the metrics with a goal difference of -4.1;
- Newcastle have created just 5.3 xG (19th place) and sit bottom in expected points with just 4 xPTS, managing to scrape points solely through unlikely finishes;
- Aston Villa is also showing signs of decline, dropping to 17th place on the xG difference (-3.4);
- Tottenham shares 17th for chance creation (6.6 xG), shedding light on their challenging start to the season.
Below are the comprehensive tables illustrating expected goals from the initial rounds of the season.
Expected Goals (xG) Table
| Position | Club | xG | Difference to Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton | 12.9 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 11.8 | +4.2 |
| 3 | Brentford | 11.0 | +1.0 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 10.8 | -0.8 |
| 5 | Manchester United | 10.7 | -1.7 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest | 10.6 | -5.6 |
| 7 | Sunderland | 10.5 | -4.5 |
| 8 | Fulham | 9.6 | -3.6 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 9.3 | -2.3 |
| 10 | Everton | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 11 | Ipswich | 8.9 | +0.1 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| 13 | Chelsea | 8.4 | +6.6 |
| 14 | Leeds | 8.3 | -0.3 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 8.1 | -1.1 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6.9 | -0.9 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 6.6 | -3.6 |
| 18 | Hull City | 6.6 | +1.4 |
| 19 | Newcastle | 5.3 | +3.7 |
| 20 | Coventry | 4.9 | -3.9 |
Expected Goals Against (xGA) Table
| Position | Club | xGA | Difference to Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 4.7 | +0.3 |
| 2 | Nottingham Forest | 7.2 | +0.8 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 4 | Bournemouth | 8.0 | +5.0 |
| 5 | Manchester City | 8.2 | -3.2 |
| 6 | Everton | 8.3 | -3.3 |
| 7 | Manchester United | 8.4 | +0.6 |
| 8 | Brentford | 8.6 | -2.6 |
| 9 | Coventry | 8.6 | +1.4 |
| 10 | Tottenham | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| 11 | Leeds | 8.8 | -3.8 |
| 12 | Hull City | 9.1 | -3.1 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 9.1 | -0.1 |
| 14 | Brighton | 9.4 | -4.4 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 10.1 | +1.9 |
| 16 | Chelsea | 10.2 | +2.8 |
| 17 | Fulham | 10.3 | -0.3 |
| 18 | Aston Villa | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 19 | Ipswich | 10.8 | +1.2 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 12.8 | -0.8 |
Expected Goals Difference (xG Difference) and Expected Points (xPTS) Table
| Pos. | Club | Difference (xG – xGA) | xPTS | Difference to Actual Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | +6.1 | 13 | +2 |
| 2 | Manchester City | +3.6 | 11 | +7 |
| 3 | Brighton | +3.5 | 10 | +3 |
| 4 | Nottingham Forest | +3.4 | 11 | -6 |
| 5 | Brentford | +2.4 | 9 | +1 |
| 6 | Manchester United | +2.3 | 9 | -3 |
| 7 | Liverpool | +1.9 | 10 | -1 |
| 8 | Everton | +0.7 | 9 | +1 |
| 9 | Sunderland | +0.4 | 8 | -4 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | +0.1 | 9 | -6 |
| 11 | Leeds | -0.5 | 8 | +1 |
| 12 | Fulham | -0.7 | 8 | -6 |
| 13 | Chelsea | -1.8 | 7 | +3 |
| 14 | Ipswich | -1.9 | 8 | +1 |
| 15 | Tottenham | -2.1 | 8 | -5 |
| 16 | Hull City | -2.5 | 6 | +3 |
| 17 | Aston Villa | -3.4 | 7 | -2 |
| 18 | Coventry | -3.7 | 4 | -1 |
| 19 | Newcastle | -3.8 | 4 | +4 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | -4.1 | 6 | +1 |
