If Chelsea continue this way, they could be in for a very successful season.
After three matches under new manager Xabi Alonso, the Blues have secured a commendable points tally, sitting fourth in the Premier League behind only the season’s frontrunners: Arsenal, Manchester City, and the surprise package Hull City.
Remarkably, Chelsea shares the top spot in the league for goals scored. With two wins from three matches, they are on track for a season total of 76 points, a tally that would guarantee a top-four finish in any of the last three campaigns.
Their fixture list has been tough, featuring a trip to Fulham, a home game against the ambitious Brighton, and a challenging away loss to Arsenal, which could very well be their toughest test of the year. According to Opta’s rankings, only Coventry City had a tougher start to the season.
During the summer, the club invested heavily in Morgan Rogers, who has been nothing short of fantastic. Cole Palmer appears to be returning to his best form, while Joao Pedro has officially emerged as one of the world's top strikers. This attacking trio has been performing wonderfully.
Given their tumultuous previous season, finishing tenth and cycling through three managers, Alonso is undoubtedly steering the team back to a formidable level. Following five years of chaos under owners Todd Boehly and the Clearlake Capital fund, Chelsea now seems to be one of the few clubs in the league showcasing clear positive momentum.
However, this positive outlook can only last for so long if we scrutinise their style of play. Despite an impressive scoring record, the team's matches have lacked control.
In their opening games, Chelsea has recorded remarkable attacking statistics: eight goals, an expected goals (xG) tally of 5.56 (not including penalties), 48 shots, and 93 touches in the opponent's box. These numbers are even more impressive when you consider that they spent nearly a third of their time playing away against Arsenal, a team renowned for its defensive prowess.
The paradox lies in their possession statistic, which stands at a mere 36.3%—the second lowest in the league. Even more striking is their position in the attacking third, where they rank 17th out of 20. This presents a significant anomaly.
Historically, the world’s top teams create chances through ball control in the opposing half. Since the 2009/10 season, no Premier League team with an attacking possession rate below 40% has maintained a positive goal difference or finished above mid-table.
To further complicate matters, this contrasts sharply with Alonso's previous teams. During his time at Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid, attacking possession never dropped below 65%. His demand for total control and aggressive pressing, showcased with talents like Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior, was actually a contributing factor to his exit from Madrid.
Perhaps Alonso has learned from these experiences. Currently, Chelsea are the most passive team in the Premier League when it comes to pressing. Their opponents average 18.89 passes per defensive action, well above the league average of 12.20. This reduced pressing has resulted in the Blues conceding a concerning number of shots on goal and touches inside their penalty area.
Injury to Moises Caicedo could be the answer to their problems in midfield. His presence, as one of the world’s finest defensive midfielders, would undoubtedly add balance. However, he has only seen 14 minutes of action thus far. The summer sales of Enzo Fernandez to Manchester City and Andrey Santos to Manchester United have severely limited options in central midfield. The manager's current choices include Romeo Lavia, right-back Reece James, the 36-year-old Jordan Henderson, and Malo Gusto, who is also a wide player.
The key question of the season is whether Chelsea will continue to play in this style. Their refusal to control possession and the resulting open spaces have unleashed the attacking trio's best qualities. Can Alonso maintain this firepower while ensuring the defence doesn’t collapse under the weight of opponents' chances? The answer will ultimately shape the fate of the season at Stamford Bridge.
