The race for the Ballon d'Or is nearly over, with the world's best player set to be crowned at a glamorous ceremony in London tonight. Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, and others have left no stone unturned, as campaigns from players, clubs, and their entourages have dominated press coverage and social media feeds for weeks.
A remarkable triumph for Spain over Argentina in the World Cup final has significantly boosted the chances of 2024 award contender Rodri and young Lamine Yamal. Barcelona is vigorously pushing Yamal for the honour, perhaps hoping to avoid splitting votes among club and national teammates.
According to bookmakers, Harry Kane is the favourite. The Bayern Munich forward's and England's star performances have been built on exceptional consistency, as he regularly finds the net and creates opportunities, shifting the narrative firmly in his favour.
During the tournament, the eight-time Ballon d'Or winner Lionel Messi demonstrated that at 39, he can still compete at the highest level, scoring eight goals and leading Argentina to the final. For a brief moment, he held the record for the most goals in the tournament's history until Kylian Mbappe overtook him. David Beckham has even predicted victory for Messi following Inter Miami's triumph in the Leagues Cup.
Top 10 contenders for the 2026 Ballon d'Or.
10. Pau Cubarsi
A fresh face in the rankings. The Barcelona defender is tipped for the Golden Boy award but has edged out Vinicius Junior, who previously held a spot here. Vinicius had a strong season at the Santiago Bernabeu, netting 22 goals in 36 appearances, but was unable to help his club claim silverware. Following a shaky start to the new season, where Real fell six points behind the leaders, Cubarsi has rightfully taken his place among the top contenders.
At just 19, Cubarsi has become a linchpin in both his club's and Spain's defence. Having been named the best young player at the victorious World Cup, he has carried his phenomenal form to Camp Nou. The Catalans have won all nine league games and appear utterly unbeatable. While it may be too much to expect him to become only the second player after Messi to win the Golden Boy and Ballon d'Or on the same night, his presence in this top tier is indisputable.
9. Michael Olise
Crystal Palace couldn't keep him forever. Now at Bayern Munich, Olise has established himself as one of the world’s best attackers. The German giants have done well to fend off interest from clubs like Real Madrid, who surely were impressed by Olise's partnership with Mbappe during the World Cup. Will his bright performances be enough for victory in the voting? Probably not this year, but his inclusion in the conversation is already a significant statement.
8. Erling Haaland
Football-wise, Haaland doesn't deserve a drop in the rankings ahead of the ceremony. This summer, he starred at the World Cup, leading Norway to the quarter-finals on their first finals appearance since 1998. His scoring feats even knocked five-time world champions Brazil out of the tournament. Away from the top national teams, Haaland was unquestionably the best player in the tournament.
After a routine season at Manchester City, where he scored 38 goals and won a domestic double, he kicked off the new season with 12 goals in 10 matches. The forward has simply not stopped scoring. However, one significant factor weighed heavily: the voting concluded just days after Manchester City was found guilty of financial wrongdoing. Now, any club success seems stained by controversy, possibly leading some voting members to look negatively upon the Norwegian, whose goal-scoring was allegedly funded by inflated sponsorship earnings of £830 million over eight seasons.
7. Jude Bellingham
The standout for Thomas Tuchel's side at the tournament silenced critics by leading England to a long-awaited World Cup bronze. This redemption story alone has propelled Bellingham back into the list of contenders, as his pre-tournament season was less than stellar. Injuries limited him to just 13 goal contributions for Real Madrid in a trophy-less campaign.
Nevertheless, he has made a brilliant start to the new season under Jose Mourinho, amassing seven goal contributions in just nine league matches. Recently, he notched four assists in England's thrashing of Croatia (7-0), becoming the first England midfielder to achieve such a feat since February 1993. His chances for the Ballon d'Or may seem low, but this tournament proved that Jude should never be written off.
6. Ousmane Dembele
If France had clinched the World Cup as many expected before their dismal semi-final exit, Dembele would have been a strong contender for a second consecutive Ballon d'Or. The combination of World Cup and Champions League success often translates to victory.
However, this would be a considerable overstatement for a player who ranked only fourth in efficiency among France's forwards in the tournament. Despite being PSG's top scorer, winning in Ligue 1 and the Champions League, his productivity has halved compared to last year. Plenty of medals secure his spot in the top ten, but failure on the international stage leaves him with only ghostly hopes. A slow start to the new campaign further compounds the issue.
5. Lionel Messi
His presence on this list underscores the overwhelming weight of the World Cup in the award selection. Messi wouldn't have earned a nomination based solely on his MLS performances, yet he showcased an extraordinary level of football at 39.
His eight goals carried Argentina to the final, where they were narrowly defeated by Spain. Had he claimed a second consecutive title, he would have been among the top two contenders. Even with a silver medal, many experts named him the tournament’s best player. Factor in the jury's historical affection for Messi, and he remains a contender. His departure from the national team after his father Jorge's death suggests this may be his last shot at another Ballon d'Or.
4. Kylian Mbappe
It seems insane that at 27, Mbappe still lacks the premier individual accolade, given his long-standing dominance at the top level. Once again, he finds himself among the frontrunners. Winning the Golden Boot at the World Cup with ten goals in North America meant he surpassed Miroslav Klose and Lionel Messi, becoming the tournament’s all-time leading scorer. Both he and Messi could rightly lay claim to being the best player of the World Cup.
Amidst the toxic atmosphere at Real Madrid, he still managed to bag 42 goals in 44 appearances, although this did not save the club from a trophy-less season. Come what may, his scoring record is undeniable. Under Jose Mourinho, the Frenchman has found his best form to start the new season, netting 12 goals in 12 matches, suddenly making him a leading contender for individual honours.
3. Rodri
The weight of the World Cup in the eyes of the jury is undeniable. Rodri had a fantastic tournament as Spain's midfield metronome, winning him the tournament's Golden Ball title, besting the likes of Messi and Mbappe. Immediately after the final, it seemed this would be enough for victory in the main annual voting.
This could feel slightly unjust against a backdrop of a less than stellar club season. Following his injury, it took time for him to regain form at Manchester City, who won domestic cups but let their Premier League title slip. However, a strong start at Barcelona may sway opinions in his direction. The Spaniard has seamlessly integrated into a side that’s won every league match with a staggering +30 goal difference after nine rounds. He himself doesn’t feel overconfident, believing the club is promoting Yamal.
The club has backed Lamine because they see him as the player who truly deserves it, and that’s entirely fair.
2. Lamine Yamal
Yamal will undoubtedly take home his share of accolades throughout his career, but the 19-year-old winger could earn his first Ballon d'Or this year after finishing second last year. He has become the first player under 20 to feature in both the European and World Cup finals, winning both competitions. Despite a hamstring injury, he remained the most influential player for the national team.
Unlike Rodri, his club form only strengthens the case for the award. With 24 goals and 18 assists across all competitions for Barcelona in a title-winning La Liga season, plus 20 goal contributions in 12 matches this new campaign, his record speaks volumes. In a head-to-head against Harry Kane in the Nations League at Wembley, Yamal scored early following an error by Marc Guehi. Spain won 3-2, and Kane missed a crucial penalty. This match occurred just days before voting closed, momentarily making Yamal the undisputed favourite.
1. Harry Kane
The England captain is the clear favourite, despite not shining as brightly at the World Cup as he did in the Bundesliga. Kane finished as Europe's top scorer with 61 goals in 51 matches across all competitions, leading Bayern Munich to a league and cup double. He too had a notable tournament, scoring six goals, including a vital brace against DR Congo, helping England achieve their best result since 1966.
With a further 17 goal contributions in just 11 matches this new season, the jury has ample reason to shift the traditional focus from international tournaments. The ceremony's location is symbolically significant; it takes place in London in honour of the 70th anniversary of the first-ever Ballon d'Or win by Englishman Sir Stanley Matthews. Kane could become only the fifth player from his country to claim the prize. National team colleague Declan Rice has already voiced his support.
For me, he’s a clear winner. I think his numbers speak for themselves. The year he's had has been outstanding.
