Opta's supercomputer has calculated the probabilities for all ten matches in the fourth round of the Premier League for the 2026/27 season.
Table shapes up after three rounds
- Manchester City: 3 matches, goal difference +5, 9 points;
- Arsenal: 3 matches, goal difference +5, 9 points;
- Hull City: 3 matches, goal difference +3, 7 points;
- Chelsea: 3 matches, goal difference +1, 6 points;
- Brentford: 3 matches, goal difference +3, 5 points;
- Liverpool: 3 matches, goal difference +2, 5 points;
- Newcastle United: 3 matches, goal difference +2, 5 points;
- Everton: 3 matches, goal difference +2, 5 points;
- Leeds United: 3 matches, goal difference +1, 5 points;
- Brighton: 3 matches, goal difference +3, 4 points;
- Manchester United: 3 matches, goal difference +1, 4 points;
- Sunderland: 3 matches, goal difference 0, 4 points;
- Crystal Palace: 3 matches, goal difference -4, 3 points;
- Ipswich Town: 3 matches, goal difference -4, 3 points;
- Bournemouth: 3 matches, goal difference -1, 2 points;
- Nottingham Forest: 3 matches, goal difference -1, 2 points;
- Aston Villa: 3 matches, goal difference -5, 1 point;
- Tottenham: 3 matches, goal difference -5, 1 point;
- Fulham: 3 matches, goal difference -3, 0 points;
- Coventry City: 3 matches, goal difference -5, 0 points.
Only Manchester City and Arsenal have won all their matches so far. At the opposite end, Coventry City and Fulham sit without a single point, while three teams – Coventry, Aston Villa, and Tottenham – have yet to score a goal this season.
Match probability summary for round 4 (Opta model)
Saturday, 12 September
Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest:
Villa secured a thrilling 3-2 victory over Brugge in the Champions League but are yet to score in the league and sit 19th for expected goals (2.6 xG). However, Villa has won their last six home league matches against Forest. The probability of a draw (26.0%) is the highest of the round, with Oliver Glasner having drawn 31 times since arriving in February 2024 — second only to Andoni Iraola's record of 33.
Bournemouth - Brentford:
Marco Rose's team is the first in Premier League history to lead in each of their first three matches without winning any. Bournemouth (12) and Brentford (11) have drawn the most games in 2026, and the visitors are unbeaten in their last five outings.
Chelsea - Hull City:
Opta's supercomputer has deemed Chelsea's win the most predictable outcome of the round at 76.1%. Hull City has never won at Stamford Bridge in 18 visits, with 15 losses and three draws. Xabi Alonso’s team has scored within the first five minutes of every match this season, while Hull remains unbeaten and could become the first promoted team in history to start with four clean sheets.
Crystal Palace - Ipswich Town:
The Eagles are struggling to earn points, with only Tottenham having fewer home points in 2026 (7 vs Palace's 11). Ipswich has not kept a clean sheet in 22 Premier League matches (57 goals conceded, averaging 2.6 per game), and their coach, Gary O'Neil, has yet to secure a win against Palace in five attempts (one draw, four losses).
Liverpool - Fulham:
The Merseysiders have lost only 2 of their last 33 home matches against Fulham (23 wins, 8 draws). However, the visitors have managed to draw three times at Anfield in a row. Fulham, under Alvaro Arbeloa, risks starting their season with four losses for only the third time in club history. Former Liverpool players have lost all five matches against their old club when in charge.
Tottenham - Everton:
Roberto De Zerbi's side is facing a goal drought, having registered 37 shots but only managed a paltry 2.8 xG and no goals so far this season. Tottenham has never started a season with four consecutive matches without scoring, while Everton have failed to win any of their last six away matches.
Sunderland - Arsenal:
The Gunners are the runaway away favourites for the weekend at 65.1%. Mikel Arteta's side has only lost once in their last 14 visits to the Black Cats (eight wins, five draws). Should Arsenal win, they will start the season with four consecutive victories for the sixth time in history.
Sunday, 13 September
Coventry City - Brighton:
Frank Lampard's team is yet to earn a point or score a goal. Coventry City has only started a season with four losses once in their history, back in the 1919/20 season. Brighton, meanwhile, has lost just 1 of their last 14 matches against teams promoted from the Championship (7 wins, 6 draws).
Manchester United - Manchester City:
The Cityzens boast a 44.2% chance of winning but have won just one of their last four league derbies (one draw, two losses). Michael Carrick has triumphed in 9 of 10 home matches since his appointment. Manchester City could achieve a record seventh consecutive win to start a season. The main threat for the visitors remains Erling Haaland, who has netted 8 goals in 7 derbies but only two away.
Monday, 14 September
Leeds United - Newcastle United:
This clash features two unbeaten sides sitting on five points apiece. Leeds United under Daniel Farke has lost just once in their last 12 Premier League matches. Guests Newcastle, managed by Matthias Jaissle, have had an interesting start, allowing 61 shots against them (an astonishing average of 20.3 per match) while managing only 8 shots on target, yet they have scored 6 goals, exceeding their xG by a remarkable 3.3.
