The Manchester derby at Old Trafford is set to unfold in a fresh atmosphere. For the first time in over a decade, Pep Guardiola will not be in charge of Manchester City, making this match a baptism of fire for Enzo Mareska. The Italian has made a strong start, securing three wins in his opening matches in the Premier League. However, facing an embattled Manchester United, desperate to keep pace with the leaders, will be his first top-level test.
According to analysts at Opta, six key factors are poised to weigh heavily on the outcome of the clash.
1. Manchester City often gifts opponents clear chances
The 'Citizens' quickly shook off a 0-3 thrashing by Arsenal in the Community Shield, following it with three league wins and starting their Champions League campaign with a 2-0 victory away to Porto. However, Mareska's team does not appear unassailable.
A primary source of optimism for the home side stems from City's recent match against Coventry City, which ended in a narrow 1-0 win. The xG stats suggest Coventry created 1.37 expected goals while City boasted 2.12. Erling Haaland scored the only goal in the 26th minute, but the defence looked shaky, with Taiwo Awoniyi missing a clear chance, Jack Rudoni denied by Gianluigi Donnarumma, and Ellis Simms seeing a late effort saved with Donnarumma’s face.
In three of their five matches this season, City have allowed opponents to create three or more clear scoring opportunities. The only exceptions came against Bournemouth (1) and Porto (0). Yet even Porto managed to slice through the defence, being caught offside seven times. With Manchester United leading the league in shots taken (68) and sitting second in expected goals (7.3), they are likely to get their chances.
2. The main nightmare for United: the Erling Haaland factor
Containing Erling Haaland is the number one task for the defenders. The Norwegian thrives in big games, having scored regularly against United in previous encounters: in seven Premier League matches against them, he has netted eight goals. Only Mohamed Salah (13) and Alan Shearer (10) have more league goals against the Manchester club in history.
Haaland's attacking statistics against Manchester United read as follows:
- Minutes played: 617;
- Shots: 25 attempts;
- Goals: 8 scored (including one penalty);
- Expected goals (xG): 7.1;
- Shot sharpness (xG per shot): 0.28.
August (24 goals) and September (16 goals) have been stellar months in the striker’s career. He has scored in his last three games across all competitions. The only silver lining for United fans is that Haaland has found the net only twice in three Premier League visits to Old Trafford.
3. Midfield battle between England’s hopes: Kobbie Mainoo vs Elliot Anderson
In the midfield contest, two of England’s brightest prospects will clash. Elliot Anderson shone at the World Cup, winning bronze and securing a high-profile transfer to Manchester City. Meanwhile, Mainoo has emerged as the only English outfield player not to have seen any minutes in the tournament.
At club level, Kobbie has ramped up his performances. He is becoming sharper, winning battles, and cleaning up in the centre. Mainoo wins 68.2% of his duels (the 6th highest among midfielders) and makes 10.1 recoveries per 90 minutes (2nd in the league). His passing accuracy under pressure has been remarkable too: out of 103 attempts, he’s completed 93 with a 90% success rate. He even managed 81 accurate passes out of 83 in just 64 minutes during a Champions League match against Sabah.
Anderson has taken on the mantle in City’s midfield following Rodri's departure, sitting 7th in tackles won (3.1 per 90 minutes), while leading the league in passes (121.4 per 90 minutes) and ball progression through dribbling (19.5). His stats also reflect an impressive 76 precise line-breaking passes into the final third. Sunday's match will highlight whose dominance will be more effective.
4. Bruno Fernandes against Ryan Cherki: a playmaker showdown
Both midfielders have emerged as top creators in the league this season. Their average statistics per 90 minutes reflect the nuances of their duel:
| Statistic (average per 90 minutes) | Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) | Ryan Cherki (Manchester City) |
| Minutes played in 2025/26 season | 3,066 minutes | 1,786 minutes |
| Chances created | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| Open play chances created | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Big chances created | 0.97 | 0.96 |
| Expected assists (xA) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| Actual assists | 0.62 | 0.60 |
Cherki has continued to dazzle at the start of this campaign with league-leading figures of 0.69 xA per 90 minutes and an average of 5.1 chances created per game. He already boasts two assists against Bournemouth and two goals against Crystal Palace.
For Fernandes, the creative load has decreased with the arrival of Youri Tielemans and the progress of Mainoo. Nevertheless, Bruno has been more decisive in front of goal lately, averaging 5.0 shots per 90 minutes (compared to 2.5 last year) and scoring four goals in all competitions.
5. Will United exploit City’s high defensive line with counterattacks?
Manchester City continue to employ an enormous territorial advantage in matches. The team begins possession 44.2 metres from their own goal (the third highest in the league).
Defensive metrics among Premier League teams indicate the unique style of the ‘Citizens’:
- High block: 42% of the time when the opposition begins their attacks;
- Medium block: 49% of the time;
- Low block: just 9% of the time— the absolute minimum among all 20 Premier League clubs. In comparison, United spend 14% of the time in a low block, while Arsenal and Leeds United sit at 22%, and current league leaders Newcastle United at 28%.
Manchester United are ready to punish their opponents for any space left open. They currently rank second in the league for total runs behind defenders (142) and lead in the share of such runs (33.0%).
The main driver of this verticality is Bryan Mbeumo. His running stats show 85 possessions gained and 49 runs behind defenders—the best in the entire Premier League. If Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko, and Marcus Rashford can time their runs to avoid offside traps, Donnarumma is in for a busy afternoon.
6. A gap on the left flank for the hosts
Manchester United have conceded two goals in each of their first three Premier League matches. Their main vulnerability has been the left-back position occupied by Luke Shaw. Abdul Fatawu made easy work of him before scoring against Ipswich Town, while during the match against Everton, Shaw squeezed in and allowed Tyrique George a run.
Infographics illustrating where opponents are finding success against Manchester United this season—ignoring set pieces—underscore this imbalance:
- Left flank (Shaw's area): 50.0% of all opposition goals;
- Central defensive zone: 25.0% of goals;
- Right flank: 25.0% of goals.
Manchester City consistently overload the box from open play (13.7 crosses per match—the most in four seasons). While Shaw is active going forward, with 2.9 crosses per game and 1.8 chances created per 90 minutes, he had a rest in the previous match, and his replacement Patrick Dorgu struggled defensively against Sabah. Whoever emerges on the left for Manchester United will face a rigorous test.
