After the independent commission's ruling on Manchester City, the future of the club has come under intense scrutiny. The Citizens have been deemed guilty of breaching financial regulations, yet they maintain their innocence and have until 2 October to lodge an appeal. As it stands, no final sanctions have been imposed.
BBC Sport has examined key scenarios—from the imminent appeal stage through to the possibility of a criminal investigation, relegation from the Premier League, and the ramifications for the club's ownership.
What happens next?
The first step will be Manchester City's appeal, which is set to be filed by Friday, 2 October.
According to Premier League procedures, the appeal will be reviewed by a separate three-member committee. Past cases, such as those involving Everton and Nottingham Forest, indicate that appeals regarding the decision are often looked at before any final punishment is laid down, although there are no guarantees this will apply to City.
If the appeal is assessed, there could be a further procedure to contest any sanctions that are enforced. The Premier League has stated its intent to conclude the process swiftly.
Regulations suggest a timeline of around 12 weeks for the appeals process and an additional 30 days for a ruling to be issued, although the timeline may be accelerated in consideration of the season's schedule.
Could Manchester City be relegated to the Championship?
This scenario is possible, but no decision regarding relegation has been made yet.
One possibility involves a points deduction severe enough to plunge City into the relegation zone either this season or next.
Alternatively, the club could face outright expulsion from the Premier League. Such a decision would require support from 15 of the other 19 clubs, as detailed by BBC.
If City were to be expelled, they would need to seek permission from the FA to continue playing. However, the EFL and National League are separate bodies and aren’t obliged to automatically accept City's application.
If the club has to restart at a significantly lower level, it could potentially mean beginning in League 2 or even lower, a stark contrast to a typical relegation to the Championship.
Why is Juventus' example particularly significant?
As BBC points out, Juventus serves as a historical precedent; in 2006, they were relegated from Serie A to Serie B due to match-fixing allegations.
The Turin giants managed to retain key players, including Gianluigi Buffon, Pavel Nedved, and David Trezeguet, and returned to the top flight after one season, finishing third upon re-entry.
For Manchester City, a potential season in the lower tiers would spell severe financial consequences, yet the long-term contracts of several players might influence their decisions regarding the future.
Could this case lead to criminal proceedings?
This remains one of the more pressing questions, but currently, there’s no confirmation that a criminal inquiry has been initiated.
BBC has reached out to UK authorities that could investigate financial crimes, including regional police forces, the National Crime Agency, HMRC, and the Serious Fraud Office, but there has been no indication of an ongoing investigation. Moreover, these bodies are not mandated to publicly disclose the existence of such probes.
Former Manchester City chairman David Bernstein suggested on BBC Radio 5 Live that certain aspects of the case could potentially warrant scrutiny from outside the football system.
However, finance expert Kieran Maguire expressed doubts about the likelihood of a broader investigation, citing a lack of clear grounds for tax claims from HMRC.
Thus, the Premier League's verdict does not automatically trigger a transition to criminal proceedings.
What will happen to the owners of Manchester City?
Another pertinent issue concerns the club's hierarchy.
The Independent Football Regulator (IFR) was established in 2025 in England, empowering it to assess the financial sustainability of clubs and the suitability of owners, directors, and executives.
IFR chair David Kogan has stated that the regulator can evaluate the fitness of owners and executives should evidence of wrongdoing emerge. However, he emphasized that the regulator will wait for the further developments in the case between Manchester City and the Premier League.
In exceptional circumstances, the legislation allows the IFR to suspend or withdraw the club's licence.
At present, though, there are no decisions regarding the jettisoning of Manchester City’s owners.
Could the British government intervene?
Theoretically, a precedent exists.
In 2022, the UK government compelled Roman Abramovich to sell Chelsea following sanctions imposed on the Russian businessman in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine.
However, the situation with Manchester City is distinct. There are currently no equivalent sanctions against the club's owners, and the matter at hand pertains to football's financial regulations.
BBC notes that any potential government intervention regarding City’s ownership would raise serious questions about the UK's relations with the UAE.
