Following the conclusion of the 2026 World Cup, the race for the Ballon d'Or has emerged as one of the most discussed topics in football globally. To minimise subjectivity in choosing the winner, a Reddit user, Codaq3, created a mathematical model that assesses the best players purely by their statistical performances from the 2025/26 season.
How the statistical model works
The model rates contenders on a 100-point scale based on five key categories:
- 40% — Total goals and assists (G+A);
- 20% — Number of Player of the Match (POTM) awards;
- 20% — Team trophies;
- 12% — Individual accolades (such as Player of the Season or Player of the Tournament);
- 8% — Golden Boot awards.
Final ranking for Ballon d'Or contenders 2026
- Harry Kane (Bayern Munich / England) — 80.0
- Lionel Messi (Inter Miami / Argentina) — 74.8
- Michael Olise (Bayern Munich / France) — 61.5
- Erling Haaland (Manchester City / Norway) — 60.8
- Lamine Yamal (Barcelona / Spain) — 59.9
- Ousmane Dembele (PSG / France) — 57.6
- Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid / France) — 56.5
- Kvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG / Georgia) — 56.4
- Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United / Portugal) — 41.8
- Luis Diaz (Liverpool / Colombia) — 41.0
- Deniz Undav (Stuttgart / Germany) — 33.0
- Rodri (Manchester City / Spain) — 25.8
Limitations and nuances of the calculation
The model's creator highlights that this system is not the absolute ideal. It favours attacking players due to the significant weight given to goals and assists, which has seen a defensive midfielder like Rodri placed in 12th, even behind Deniz Undav.
Furthermore, the algorithm does not take into account the varying levels of difficulty in different leagues and tournaments. Messi's statistics were calculated from September 1, 2025, to align with the European calendar.
The official Ballon d'Or ceremony will take place on October 26, 2026.
